On the night of 1st and  2nd of April the tension increased along the frontline territories between Azerbaijan and Armenian armed forces . Despite that three days have passed and the fighting in the front is continuing. According to official information, during the three day period Azerbaijan has lost 15 persons and the opposite side has lost 30 servicemen. It is reported that despite the loss of servicemen, a great deal of the Armenian military equipment has been destroyed  as well.

What is the main reason for starting this conflict at this particular time and can this tension break into a war? We directed these questions to several political analysts.

 

 

Arastun Orujlu, the political analyst, believes that the major reason of the escalation of situation on April 1st  is the constant shelling of Azerbaijani residential areas situated along the contact line by the Armenians. "Previously they used to open fire into the frontline with light weapons namely assault rifles, later they switched to large-caliber machine guns and mortars. At one point it should have been stopped. This is the main reason. According to political ideology, as long as the tension between two countries continues and shootings occur, the international forces do not interfere and create comfortable conditions for the aggressor, the war is likely at any time.”

 

 "However with this attack Armenians become very disappointed. No member state of Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) supported Armenia. On the contrary, many member states of that organization took the side of Azerbaijan.  For example this included Belarus,” said Orujlu.

 

Analysts added that Russia has also a role to play in the escalation of this conflict: "But I don’t think it has a dominant role to play. In Moscow they understand very well that with  the current armament level this tension can turn into an uncontrollable war. Russia would not want the eruption  of a large-scale war around its borders. The reason is that the conflict around this country is sufficient. From these events it can be concluded that Russia through Armenia wanted to blackmail Azerbaijan as a result of which received the backlash in a very bad way.”

 

 

 

The Political analyst Zardusht Alizade said that after Syria Karabakh became Russia’s next target: "When Russia withdrew its troops from Syria I was thinking where will it be heading afterwards? Some experts believed that this time the target  of Russia will be Ukraine, but the target of Russia became South Caucasus, not Ukraine. That is to say Azerbaijan and Armenia. Actually it is a disadvantage for both of the state leaders to declare war. Firstly, Armenia does not have (financial or political)  resources, Armenia which occupied the territories in Karabakh believes that sometime Azerbaijan will be bored and give up its territories. The war also does not play into the hands of  the Azerbaijani leadership if the war starts, Russia in any case under some pretext, will join the war like it did in Georgia.”

 

The analyst added that officially Moscow took the opportunity when the commanders in chief of both countries participated at the nuclear summit in Washington: The Moscow leadership profiting from the occasion carried out provocation in Karabakh. The provocation has ended with two results. Firstly, the Azerbaijani army has demonstrated that it is ready to destroy adversary targets. Secondly, it became clear that these provocations will not cause a large-scale war. There is no such a political will either in Armenia, or Azerbaijan. The aim of Russia is to show who the chief in the region is. Neither Azerbaijani, nor Armenian leadership wants deployment of Russian troops in Karabakh. After coming of Russian troops it will be absurd to talk about independence.”

According to Z.Alizade as before, Europe and USA take a dishonest stand and does not show any attitude. The west participates only in information war against Azerbaijan.”

 

 

Human rights activist and conflictologist  Arzu Abdullayev says that what is happening on the front line is a political game: "This game is committed by Russia. It is not the first time such tension has arisen. Two years ago when president Ilham Aliyev was participating in the NATO summit in 2014, Russia carried out provocation in Karabagh. Armenian troops caused the large scale tension in the front line and fierce fighting started. The fighting continued from January 17th  until 21st .This was the demonstration by Armenia that you can talk with whoever you wish but the master of this region is me. This time both presidents were participating in the nuclear summit. When the tension escalated on the front line Armenia declared that the ceasefire was violated by Azerbaijan. In fact, it was a game of Russia. The same things happen also this time. Suppressing the Armenian attack by our army and gaining a victory is not the end. You cannot call it victory, Russia allowed this victory. With this step Russia either pursues a goal to take Azerbaijan to its side or signaling to Armenia that talk with anyone you wish but I will make a decision. But the current situation with Russia is very difficult in terms of economy or policy.

Because most of the world’s countries alienated Russia. For this reason Russia tries to show its influence in the region.”

 

According to the opinion of Elkhan Shahinoglu, the chairman of Atlas Research Center the ceasefire is usually intensively violated in the summer: The exasperation of the situation at this time of the year is a result of worsening relations between the two sides. The Azerbaijani side supports a peaceful solution of the conflict. Despite that a lot of time has passed with peace talks which  did not have results; the situation has changed towards a totally different direction. Foreign countries and relative organizations must support us in peaceful negotiations. If we consider the current situation, the violation of the ceasefire has an almost objective reason. The tension lasting for four days will make foreign organizations review and re-evaluate this issue.”

 

The analyst evaluated whether Russia is involved in the tensions or not as following: Why does Putin need the escalation of tension in the South Caucasus. He has enough problems (Ukraine, Syria). On the contrary he would not want start of war again in the South Caucasus. It is in our interest to change the status quo. The purpose is to show powerful countries and Russia that Azerbaijan will not bear long-term occupations.”

The analyst concluded that the news about deployment of Russian jet fighters and military equipment in Armenia is disinformation: "It is known to everyone that Russia is an ally of Armenia and tries to protect it. However with the current tension Russian officials are correct in their statements. I mean they neither takes Armenia’s side nor Azerbaijan’s.

It is necessary to be careful with this disinformation because along with fighting in the front line there is an information war. The opposite side attempts to confuse the world community with disinformation.”