North Korea is believed to have dispatched thousands of soldiers to Russia to support its invasion of Ukraine, with thousands more anticipated to join by the year’s end, according to South Korean intelligence and military officials
While the National Intelligence Service said in its latest analysis the costs of North Korea stepping into the war seem to outweigh the benefits, other experts in Seoul say Pyongyang can now expect Moscow to have its back in a possible contingency on the Korean Peninsula.
The Institute for National Security Strategy, a think tank affiliated with the NIS, said in a report last week that North Korea’s decision to send troops to Russia a few weeks before the US presidential election appears to be based on the calculation that a Donald Trump victory would lead to an early end to the Ukraine war.
Rep. Wi Sung-lac, who was Seoul’s ambassador to Russia, told The Korea Herald that entering the war against Ukraine is "not a bad deal at all” for North Korea.
"North Korea is on record as having fought for Russia. If there ever is a war on the Korean Peninsula, North Korea can now expect Russia to come and help,” Wi said.
Nam Sung-wook, the former president of the INSS, told The Korea Herald the NIS think tank was "downplaying” the significance of North Korea joining the Ukraine war with its recent reports.
"North Korea and Russia’s military cooperation is going to last beyond the war. They agreed to provide immediate military assistance if either of them is attacked under the mutual defense pact, which is binding,” he said.
Nam said North Korea "will remain useful to Russia as a bargaining chip” in negotiations with the next US administration. "Moscow will use its close ties with Pyongyang to gain leverage over Washington, the way Beijing had in the past,” he said.
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