"Moody’s forecasts growth of 1.1% in 2017 and 1.9% in 2018, as hydrocarbon prices increase, credit growth resumes, and increased gas production from the second stage of the Shah Deniz gas field comes on stream,” says the report.

The Ba1 rating is supported by a number of credit strengths, including sizeable hydrocarbon reserves, which provide substantial revenue to the government; low (though rising) government debt and low interest payments; and large foreign reserves, held in a sovereign wealth fund, which cushion against internal and external shocks, according to the agency’s analysts.

"Although Azerbaijan’s public finances are highly sensitive to fluctuations in oil prices, manageable levels of government debt, sizable reserve buffers and high debt affordability provide ample fiscal space,” says the report. "Azerbaijan’s modified 2016 budget demonstrates the authorities’ strong commitment to fiscal consolidation.”