By Kamal Ali
Political analyst Rasim Musabayov has posted on his Facebook page a statement on the situation of the Armenian economy.
Armenia is so much "absorbed” by Russia militarily, politically and also financially that it experiences discomfort no matter if energy prices fall or rise.
Economic growth for this year will be half of what had been expected and the weakening of the Russian ruble will have a negative impact on the Armenian dram, Musabayov wrote.
Recent "large-scale” interventions by the Armenian central bank to stem the decline of the dram have not been effective. The currency has lost 10 percent of its value against the dollar since January to 435 drams to $1.
According to analysts, the decline will continue.
Armenia's foreign exchange reserves are negligible (just over $1 billion). It compares with Georgia’s $3 billion and Azerbaijan’s $50 billion of forex reserves.
Armenia's debts too are growing to dangerous levels. It is unlikely to issue Eurobonds again after proceeds from the debut issue of sovereign bonds were used unwisely to pay off Russian debt ahead of time.
New loans borrowed from the IMF and the World Bank, as well as assistance from the European Union and other donors are hardly enough to handle existing debts.
As for investments from Russia, today the Kremlin is not in a situation to support its satellites in detriment of its own economy.
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