Russia seeks control over Baltic states as part of wider aims in Ukraine – ISW

Russia’s ultimate objective in its war against Ukraine is to establish political control over the entire country rather than seize specific regions such as Donetsk, the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in a report on Tuesday.

ISW said Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s remarks in an Aug. 19 interview, in which he denied Moscow sought to annex territories including Crimea and Donbas, nonetheless came with demands that effectively negate Ukraine’s sovereignty, such as rolling back language and religion laws.

According to ISW, the Kremlin’s real goals are to remove Ukraine’s democratically elected government and replace it with a pro-Russian one, while also ensuring demilitarization, NATO exclusion and regime change — aims it is ready to pursue by military or diplomatic means.

The think tank said Russia has pursued control of Ukraine since 2004 through hybrid campaigns and launched a full-scale invasion in 2022 after those efforts failed. It added that Moscow similarly seeks to expand influence over other former Soviet states, including NATO members Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, though its attempts there have so far failed. Russia has had greater success in Belarus and Georgia, ISW said, pointing to efforts to consolidate control over Minsk to undermine perceptions of Belarusian independence.

N. Tebrizli