Putin said to fear coup amid deepening economic crisis

 Mounting economic difficulties stemming from Russia’s war in Ukraine have heightened President Vladimir Putin’s fears of a possible coup, Britain’s The Telegraph reported on Sunday, citing Western analysts.

According to the newspaper, Russia’s economy faces increasing strain as the EU and the United States impose new sanctions, businesses struggle with high interest rates, and both public debt and consumer prices rise. Economy Minister Maksim Reshetnikov has warned that the economy is “on the verge of recession.” Inflation has exceeded 40% since the start of the war, The Telegraph said, citing official data.

The Finance Ministry expects the budget deficit to reach 2.6% of GDP, or 5.7 trillion roubles, in 2025 — five times higher than planned. To cover the gap, the government is raising taxes — including an increase in VAT to 22% from 2026 — and expanding domestic borrowing, further driving up public debt.

Falling oil revenues and surging fuel prices following Ukrainian strikes on refineries have added pressure. Craig Kennedy of Harvard University’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies estimates that military enterprises hold about $190 billion in debt — roughly 37% of the country’s annual budget.

The situation is worsened by growing dependence on China and new Western sanctions. U.S. President Donald Trump recently imposed restrictions on Russia’s top oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, over the lack of progress in peace talks with Ukraine. China and India, key buyers of Russian crude, have since cut imports, threatening to reduce the Kremlin’s foreign currency inflows.

Angela Stent, honorary director of Georgetown University’s Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies, said Putin’s inner circle is trying to discredit opposition figures and portray Western governments as seeking to destabilize Russia.

Earlier this month, Russia’s FSB opened a criminal case against exiled businessman Mikhail Khodorkovsky and 22 members of the Anti-War Committee, accusing them of plotting a “violent seizure of power.” Khodorkovsky, who lives in London, dismissed the charges as “false” and aimed at intimidating the opposition.