Turks will on Sunday cast their ballots in the country's first direct presidential elections, and few doubt that the prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, will easily beat his main rival.
The Turkish head of state used to be chosen by parliament, but a 2010 referendum allowed Turks to choose their president in direct elections. For the first time, more than three million Turks living abroad can also vote.
Erdogan is up against the 70-year-old scholar Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu and the Kurdish politician Selahattin Demirtas, 41, who is the co-chair of the Democratic People's party (HDP). Ihsanoglu has the support of several opposition parties, including that of the Republican People's party (CHP). However, few observers have any doubt who will win.
"Recep Tayyip Erdogan will become the next president", Nurullah Baldir, a master halva-maker in Soma, west Turkey, stated confidently. "He is the best man for the job.''
Recent polls suggest Baldir's enthusiasm is shared by at least half the country. But his whole-hearted support might not have been counted on three months ago when Soma became the scene of Turkey's worst ever industrial accident.
After a blast tore through a local coal mine, killing 301 workers, a flood of accusations blamed crony capitalism and the cosy relationship between the mine operator Soma Holding and Erdogan's ruling Justice and Development party (AKP).
When the prime minister visited the mine, he showed little empathy for the town. He said such accidents were "the fate of miners", and reportedly slapped a girl when angry locals protested along his motorcade, calling him a thief and a murderer. One of his closest aides was seen kicking a grieving miner in the street.
But Erdogan's face is plastered all over town. Huge posters and banners promote him as a strong future president and as the representative of what he calls "the national will".
"Turkey has come a long way under our prime minister", Baldir said. "Our economy is doing well now, the people are better off. Just look at the roads! He transformed the country and made it much stronger. Of course I will vote for him this Sunday! He is a blessing for Turkey."
"Soma will vote for Erdogan again, you will see", agreed a Soma miner, who wished to remain anonymous. "The government paid the families of those who were killed, and promised them a free flat. They know how to get people to forget about what really happened here.
"At least they had the decency not to offer us money again to attend election rallies. And Erdogan's election vans only started driving around town the day after they started paying miners theirs salary again not long ago. But now they are confident again and he will win, no matter what."
The post of president has been largely symbolic in Turkey, but Erdogan has expressed his wish to increase presidential powers, leading to fears in the opposition that his victory might lead to a Putin-style power grab, keeping the 60-year-old at the helm of Turkish politics for years to come.
Critics have pointed out that his position as prime minister and his firm grip on the media have given him an unfair advantage during the election campaign.
AKP municipalities and companies close to the government provide public space, making Erdogan the most visible candidate. According to local media reports, state broadcaster TRT devoted 533 minutes to the prime minister between 4 and 6 July, while Ihsanoglu was covered for little more than three minutes and Demirtas for a mere 45 seconds. The Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) said large-scale government events, such as the inauguration of a new high-speed train, were often combined with Erdogan's campaign activities.
In a speech at a rally in Istanbul that was only partly broadcast on TV, Demirtas condemned the lopsided election campaign, saying: "Elections have been turned into an extremely ugly race in which the AKP's candidate is competing unfairly with the backing of all benefits of the state, financial power, media power."
To claim victory and become president after the first round on Sunday, Erdogan must secure an absolute majority of the popular vote. If he fails, he will have to go to a runoff against the candidate with the second highest percentage – widely expected to be Ihsanoglu – on 24 August.
Analysts point out that a failure to claim first round victory would be a catastrophe for Erdogan and the AKP.
"Going into a second round would be a major defeat for the AKP and would represent a detrimental blow to the legitimacy of Recep Tayyip Erdogan as president," said Gencer Özcan, professor for international relations at Bilgi University in Istanbul. "It would put in question his project to change the constitution and transform Turkey's government into a presidential system."
In recent speeches, Erdogan has clearly expressed his wish to fulfil more than just a symbolic role and to be "an active president", vowing to use the full extent of his constitutional powers and to participate in day-to-day politics. He has also underlined a partisan approach: "A president cannot be impartial. No president in this country has been neutral. And I won't be an impartial president, either."
Ihsanoglu has warned that the president should only hold the position of referee, arguing that the hasty creation of an incomplete presidential system would create a Frankenstein's monster.
Özcan predicted the period after the elections would be crucial to the future of the AKP, and Turkish politics: "On paper it seems like Erdogan took all necessary precautions to remain at the head of his party. But his election as president spells a considerable political problem to the AKP. Who will rule the party after Erdogan? Who will take over what post? This might be the start of a major power struggle inside the ruling party."
(The guardian)
Bakudaily.az
