By Kamal Ali

If hostilities resume between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Russia will not get involved despite its obligations to Yerevan, according to Vitaliy Arkov, head of PolitRUS, a political analysis group based in Moscow. 

Armenia, which is significantly weaker than Azerbaijan when it comes to military might, will not be able to make any new gains. It will lose control of Nagorno-Karabakh, Arkov said.   

Yerevan is not interested in a new war with Azerbaijan, the analyst said.

“Azerbaijan does not want to launch an attack either. The country is now internationally seen as the victim of the Armenian aggression. If it attacks first, it will immediately turn into an “aggressor” in the eyes of the international community and will be faced with political and economic sanctions. 

“The Azerbaijani government will hardly be capable of withstanding embargos. Therefore, Azerbaijan would better provoke Armenia into a new war to once again present it as a treacherous aggressor and herself as a victim and then take action to force Armenia into peace,” Arkov said in an interview on PolitRUS.

Should Russia help Azerbaijan regain control of Nagorno-Karabakh, Baku is not likely to come back into Moscow’s orbit while Yerevan will be lost for Russia once and for all. This is the last thing Moscow would want to see given Russia’s already shrinking influence in the former Soviet space, Arkov said.

Bakudaily.Az