Currencies in many emerging markets around the world have depreciated sharply in the past 12 months against the U.S. dollar, raising risks for banks in those countries--especially in emerging Europe and the Middle East, Standard & Poor's said in a report published today.
Key triggers for the sell-off have been concerns about the global economic outlook, expectations for an increase in U.S. interest rates, and a reversal
of capital flows from emerging capital markets to developed markets. Also playing into currency weakness are country-specific factors, such as political
uncertainty in Turkey and declining commodity prices impacting Russia, Nigeria, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan.
"Our study of the banking systems in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa finds that the banking systems in Kazakhstan, Belarus, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and
Nigeria are taking the hardest hits, and that's where the risks are the highest, followed by those in Russia, Georgia, and Turkey, where the risks are high," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Timucin Engin, in the report published today, "How Currency Depreciation In The EMEA Region Is Raising
Risks For Banks."
"We expect a relatively limited impact for the banking sectors in South Africa, Poland, Hungary, and Croatia," added Standard & Poor's credit analyst
Natalia Yalovskaya.
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