Russia hasconsistently denied sending tanks into Ukraine, arguing that any vehicles usedby separatist forces there must have been captured from the Ukrainian armyitself.

But nowexperts at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in Londonhave told the BBC that they have identified a Russian tank in a separatistcolumn in eastern Ukraine that they say could only have come from across theborder in Russia.

JosephDempsey, an IISS analyst, has studied video footage reportedly taken on 26August in Sverdlovsk, Luhansk, in eastern Ukraine. The video shows a convoy ofmilitary vehicles.

Whilst dateand location are unconfirmed, he says the operator of the convoy is apparent:flags associated with the separatist movement are clearly displayed and somevehicles feature bright green areas, a common feature of separatist armour.

The mixedconvoy includes at least three T-72B1 Main Battle Tanks (MBTs) but it is theappearance of a lone, more modern T-72 variant (shown below) that is ofparticular significance.

Thisvariant, distinguished by the prominent Kontakt-5 Explosive Reactive Armour(ERA) arrangement - the boxes on the turret front - is commonly referred to byWestern sources as the T-72BM.

It isoperated by the Russian Army in large numbers, but crucially it is not known tohave been exported or operated outside of Russia.

'Ambiguouswar'

Accordingto the IISS, the presence of this variant in Ukraine therefore stronglysupports the contention that Russia is supplying arms to separatist forces.

Up to nowdeniability has been a key-note of Moscow's "ambiguous war" strategyin eastern Ukraine.

The IISSsays that the first separatist tanks observed were identified as T-64BV, avariant constituting the majority of the Ukrainian army fleet.

It was thereforeinitially assumed that they, like separatist armoured vehicles before, had beencaptured in engagements with government forces or through access to known armydepots within contested areas.

However, on14 June Nato published strong evidence that these tanks had been supplied byRussia.

Althoughthe T-64BV was withdrawn from Russian active service, the IISS assesses that a significantquantity remain in storage.

Plausibledeniability?

It istherefore feasible that a number of T-64BV, surplus to current Russianrequirements, could have been supplied to the separatist forces.

Mr Dempseynotes that "the Soviet-era tanks operated by the separatists have untilnow represented those that could have been potentially acquired internallywithin Ukraine, providing a degree of plausible deniability to any suspectedthird-party supplier."

The mostrecent separatist MBT variant observed, however, is assessed to have beenoperated only by the Russian Army," he adds.

The IISSanalysis underscores the shaky foundations of Russia's constant insistence thatit is not involved in the fighting.

This takentogether with Nato satellite imagery and the recent interviews with Russianservicemen captured inside Ukraine suggests a very different reality from thatpresented by Moscow.

(BBC News)

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