By Kamal Ali
Those who hoped that Ukraine will think it’s done with the victory over the criminals in the southeast and therefore will yield Crimea to Russia were badly mistaken. They seem to have no understanding of politics.
Having become a strategic partner and military outpost of the United States, Crimea is now another reason to bash the Russian Federation, and Putin has no room for maneuvering.
In his latest televised speech, the Russian president was seen confused.
Valeriy Chalyy, deputy head of the administration of Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko, said Ukraine is preparing a legal package to secure Crimea’s return.
“Ukraine’s official position is that Crimea has always been and will remain part of Ukraine. It will take time [to get Crimea back]. We are now working on a legal package, which will help resolve the issue in the future,” he said.
Chalyy said normalization of relations between Ukraine and Russia, and also between the European Union and Russia would be impossible as long as Russia continues the illegal annexation of Crimea.
“We are not going to put this problem [Crimea] on the back burner. It received adequate reaction as sanctions were imposed by the European Union and the USA. We believe the issue of Crimea is still on the agenda,” he said, according to RBK Ukraine.
In other words, the Ukrainian state has analyzed everything that’s connected with Crimea – probably with the help of American advisers - and now is taking the issue to international court to bring Russia to book.
The Kremlin’s rhetoric about the “true Russian land”, “Khrushchev’s mistake” to hand Crimea over to Ukraine in 1954, and the division of Yugoslavia can only be discussed in internet forums. Yet, these are not sufficient arguments to support your cause at international court.
Even the “referendum” held in Crimea in March will not help, as it was in violation of Ukrainian law. According to a decision taken during the Baku conference of the Parliamentary Assembly of the OSCE, papers containing the outcome of such referenda can only be used for some other purposes (in toilet, for instance).
So, this is how things look like at the moment. International court doesn’t care if you like it or not. Had I been in the Politburo of One Russia, the ruling party in Russia, I probably would not have dared to say it openly but would have certainly said to myself: We ended up in the hole we dug ourselves.
The Ukrainians have yet to formally appeal to the court in The Hague. Sanctions have so far been imposed in response to the delivery of Russian weapons to rebels in eastern Ukraine. Russian banks, tourism agencies and businesses have been affected. Things will get even worse if new sanctions target the international banking system Swift, hampering cash transfers to Russia. You may guess what it would mean for the Russian economy.
Liliya Shevtsova, a leading researcher at Carnegie Center in Moscow, said: “Rosneft planned to sell its shares for about 12 billion dollars this year. This money is already included in the Russian state budget. It seems that Rosneft will not be able to make it this year, and there will be a gap in our budget.
“Also, Russian companies, both private and state-owned, owe Western banks 650 billion dollars. According to various estimates, we will need to borrow an additional 100 billion to 160 billion. How will give us this money?”
According to German newspaper Die Welt, over 186,000 people left Russia in the past year. In 2012, 123,000 people moved out of Russia, while 37,000 and 34,000 people emigrated in 2011 and 2010 respectively. These are official numbers. Real numbers could be even higher.
This week, it emerged that many Russian billionaires are already in panic.
“Many people realize that Putin’s Ukraine policy will lead to Russia’s international isolation and may destroy its economy,” said Igor Bunin, head of the Center for Political Technologies. “However, no-one dares to openly criticize the policy out of fear of oppression.”
Bakudaily.az
