Ukraine, Russia and pro-Russia separatists agreed last week to cease fire in Ukraine’s southeastern regions of Donets and Luhansk. They also agreed to continue talks to give broader powers to Donetsk and Luhansk and more rights to the Russian-speaking population of the regions.
ANN's Kamal Ali asked Baku-based political analyst Vafa Quluzada for comment on the agreement. Quluzada served as a foreign policy aide to former Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is seeking to establish a Eurasian Economic Union of former Soviet republics. Yet, he cannot build the alliance without Ukraine, Quluzada said.
“Therefore, Putin needs the whole of Ukraine and not only Crimea and the separatists regions,” he said. “I think these agreements will not hold because Russia’s main goal is to continue to destabilize Ukraine.”
Ukraine needed the ceasefire to regroup its armed forces after the recent failures in the battlefield. The Ukrainian army is in a deplorable condition thanks to efforts by Moscow and the government of former President Viktor Yanukovich.
Russia needed the ceasefire to avoid further sanctions by the US and the EU, Quluzada said.
“The current ceasefire is an imitation,” he said. “It won’t lead to peace, and the (military) confrontation will continue.”
Asked if the same resolution model can be used in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict as well, Quluzada said:
“I would not compare the Ukrainian problem with Karabakh, which Russia and Armenia captured from Azerbaijan along with seven surrounding Azerbaijani regions.
"The West kept silent to the occupation, simply adopting four formal resolutions at the UN Security Council. These resolutions have yet to be enforced. On Ukraine, however, Europe and NATO fully share the goal of keeping Ukraine as an independent country.
"Apart from that, Europe, NATO and the US support Ukraine’s aspirations to join the European Union. Kiev enjoys strong support by the West, and this support grows even stronger by the day. Ukrainian and NATO military vessels are already conducting joint drills in the Black Sea. The Ukrainian and American armies will held joint war games in Ukraine. NATO is expanding its presence in Eastern Europe and the Baltic region. All this is being done to ensure Ukraine’ s security in the face of Russian expansion.”
Quluzada believes that Ukraine is in a position to resist Russia and even win with the help of its powerful allies.
“We do not have friends like these,” he said.
Does this mean Crimea is now forgotten?
“I do not think it is,” Quluzada said. “Russia will not need Crimea if it is faced with an economic war. Russia is a vulnerable country when it comes to economy and technology. The West is interested in continuing the situation to divide the Russian Federation. This is exactly what happened to the Soviet Union.
“Oil prices are falling. Europe is looking for ways to ease dependence on Russian gas. These are the two things Russia survives on. Russia is the largest country by the size of its territory. Yet, it has always relied on the sale of minerals and has never been a self-sufficient country. Russia imports food and cannot feed its own population. Russia is vulnerable and the West knows that well,” Quluzada said.
“I believe the civilized world can break Russia up using economic sanctions only and without going to war. At the same time, NATO troops will be deployed in Poland and the Baltics. NATO will continue expanding to the east. Georgia will be granted special status of a NATO partner.”
Bakudaily.Az
