ANN.az interview with the Director of Strategic Ethnography Center, chairman of the committee on inter-ethnic interaction of the Public Chamber of St. Petersburg, Russian political analyst Vitaly Trofimov-Trofimov:

- Inter-ethnic tension in Russia, particularly in large Moscow and St. Petersburg, reportedly still has a place to be. I would like to hear your assessment of the situation...

- Tension in the large cities of Russia is really high, but it takes place both on the objective and subjective side. At the same time, it becomes more significant than the subjective side of the conflict, the international situation is deteriorating rapidly.

For example, during the celebration of Eid al-Adha in St. Petersburg, nationalists played a real spectacle. One of the leaders of the nationalists Nikolai Bondarik on his web site reported that an Asian wounded a "simple Russian guy" and marked the writing " Eid al-Adha. The first blood was shed." It later emerged that Bondarik and the "Russian guy" Volkov were familiar and even on the eve of the Muslim holiday agreed to stage an attack.

This is a very significant case. Moreover, in many ways it is typical. You can not make a political career on a normal everyday irritation, but it is very easy to build on hatred. And if the reason for this is not given by migrants themselves, they must create their own. So many people think, but some do not only think, but also act.

- Some of the migrants have left Russia. Do you think the slogan "Russia for the Russians" will be actually put into practice in the near future?

- The started raids on the identification and deportation of migrants, it seems to me, are a temporary measure. There are certain requirements of the economy and infrastructure, in which you cannot do without migrants. Many people understand that the slogan "Russia for the Russians" means to them a rapid rise in the prices of housing, food and clothing, so forces promoting this slogan will always face the resistance in different social classes and strata.

- Do not you feel that someone is heating interethnic tension that is beneficial to certain forces, or do you think it is quite natural?

- In such a situation very well suited is a Latin legal principle «Quid prodest». Once we begin to look at who benefits from the events in Biryulyovo, we are confronted not only with the conflict of elites, where the interests of the old Moscow elite centered around the Mayor faced with the interests of the "law enforcement" elite behind the vegetable markets, but also with the interests of big business. Sobyanin has already voiced his position: instead of vegetable stores three logistics centers will be built. In Moscow in recent years, about 30 major markets were closed and in their place new hypermarkets are already growing and the land is distributed for high-rise buildings. And this means money, budget, and so-called "kickbacks".

Indirectly the fact that the situation in Biryulyovo was inspired is indicated by other factors. For example, we could show the disproportionate media coverage that the conflict occurred in one of the most "Russian" areas of Moscow.

- How soon will the situation calm down? Does this depend on the sentence to Orkhan Zeynalov convicted of the murder of Yegor Shcherbakov?

- The verdict, of course, will reassure the public, but not for long. As long as the authorities turn a blind eye to the activities of the radical nationalists and without due care investigate their actions, they will constantly demand new victims and provoke conflicts involving "ordinary Russian guys," who almost always prove to be either nationalists or football fans. So it was with Yegor Sviridov, Maxim Sychev, Andrey Uriupin and others.

- How do you generally see the further development of the situation related to ethnic tensions?

- Contrary to the popular belief that the international situation worsens, the actual point of view is that it retains considerable stability. There are times when the situation escalates and there are times of calm, but the overall number of victims and media reports of ethnic tension remains the same.

The only thing that can change this situation for the worse is a sharp deterioration or improvement of the economic situation. In the first case, a significant amount of Russian population would be below the poverty line and will be forced to actually compete with the organized and close-knit community of immigrants from Central Asia, who occupied the lower floors in the economic system and are not going to cede them back. The second is a sharp increase in the welfare that will require the creation of new businesses, opening new jobs, new construction, and hence - to attract migrants in even greater numbers  However, so far nothing looks like a new economic crisis or growth, and the struggle against migrants looks like a gamble in patriotism. So in that respect the international relations look much more stable than they are usually drawn by the media.

Hamid Hamidov 

ANN.Az