At this point, President Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran seems like a foregone conclusion. Unless something dramatic happens, Iran will soon become a larger part of the international community, allow inspectors to investigate its nuclear sites and America and its allies will lift long-standing sanctions.
Even supporters of the deal, such as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Martin Dempsey, believe that lifting sanctions will allow Iran to become a regional military threat. "I think [Iran] will invest in additional military capability,” Dempsey said during a June visit to Jerusalem.
Yet the Iranian threat may not be quite what opponents fear. Experts agree Iran will buy military equipment once the world lifts its sanctions. But the Islamic Republic will spend years rebuilding both its fragile economy and its lackluster military.
When sanctions lift, the Islamic Republic will most likely rebuild its shattered economy using its oil reserves. But with oil trading below $50 a barrel even before Iran hits the scene, it’s likely years before Iran can buy the weapons it wants.
Iran will also invest heavily in its current military infrastructure. Much of its equipment is 1970s era hardware America sold it when Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was in power. It takes a lot of cash and creative engineering to keep it all running.
On top of that, the regional powers surrounding Iran, such as Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states are lightyears ahead of Iran in terms of military spending and equipment. All these factors are likely keep Iran from being much of an offensive threat — both regionally and globally — for years to come.
(reuters.com)
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