The Bank of America expects Azerbaijan to finally abandon its peg to the USD in the "near future”, the bank’s economist Vladimir Osakovskiy said in a note to clients.
"As oil prices have failed to recover and will likely remain depressed in the near future, we think the peg is unsustainable and should eventually force the Central Bank of Azerbaijan to proceed with another major adjustment,” Osakovskiy said.
"The country has lost nearly a quarter of its total reserves and nearly two-thirds of liquid FX CBAz reserves since their peak in mid-2014 defending the AZN peg, as we think the decline will continue on the back of the new leg down in oil prices. FX adjustment will likely take the form of another one-off 30-35% devaluation to catch up with RUB and KZT, or a full shift to a free floating regime, like in Russia or Kazakhstan.
"The move should happen soon, but could be delayed on the back of tentative stabilization of the FX market or oil recovery.”
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