This bomb has a name: Nagorno-Karabakh. In the 1990s, the oil-rich Azerbaijan lost a bloody war over the landlocked region against neighbouring Armenia, one of the poorest countries of the former Soviet space, with a population a third the size of Azerbaijan’s – facts that have all contributed to the sense of humiliation accompanying the defeat. About 20,000 people died and around a million were displaced. Today, Nagorno-Karabakh and the seven surrounding Azerbaijani regions are under Armenian control, despite the international community considering Nagorno-Karabakh a part of Azerbaijan. A peace treaty was never signed and violations of the ceasefire are becoming increasingly common.

A new war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over this disputed territory would involve some of the world’s greatest powers and endanger the supply of Azerbaijani and Central Asian gas and oil to Europe. It could also become the battlefield for a proxy war between Russia and Turkey if the hostilities between the two countries escalate: Armenia is Russia’s closest ally in the region, while Azerbaijan is closely bonded to Turkey. On December 2, reportedly under a direct order from President Aliyev, the Azerbaijani state-run Caspian Sea Shipping Co. announced discounts of up to 20% for Turkish trailer trucks carrying goods to Kazakhstan using its Caspian Sea ports, in a move one observer said was Baku "revealing that it can be helpful to Turkey still, in terms of transit and energy supply”.

Leaders in the West are well aware of the possible risks of destabilization in the Caucasus, and are desperate to keep a lid on the unresolved conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Deadly skirmishes along the so-called "Line of Contact” are a regular occurrence, but the fighting at the border has so far not escalated into a full-scale military conflict, even though Azerbaijan has been busy using its oil and gas revenues on a building up its military.