Escalation not to lead to war between Armenia, Azerbaijan: Jane's

The Azerbaijani exercises, which had not been previously announced, involve 700 armoured vehicles, 500 rockets and artillery units, 40 airplanes, 50 helicopters and 20 ships. Azerbaijan and Armenia fought a war between 1992 and 1994 over control of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, an Azerbaijani territory populated mostly by ethnic Armenians, which has remained under Armenian control since 1994. The exercises come as both sides have reported increased ceasefire violations in early September, including military fatalities and injuries of civilians in border villages. There has been no external confirmation of either country's claims but they indicate rising tensions not just along the Line of Contact (LoC) in Nagorno-Karabakh but also along the Armenian-Azeri internationally recognised border. For instance, Armenia claimed that on 2 September Azerbaijan shelled its territory in the Tavush region, killing soldiers and injuring civilians.

Both countries have increased military expenditure in recent years, although Armenia's 2015 military budget was only USD414 million compared to Azerbaijan's USD5 billion. However, IHS assesses that escalation of hostilities to an interstate war is unlikely. First, Azerbaijan is unlikely to seek a confrontation with Russia. Armenia is a member of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and enjoys political and military protection from Moscow within that framework. Armenian president Serzh Sargsyan will take part in the CSTO summit in Dushanbe, scheduled for 14-15 September. The 102nd Russian military base is also stationed in Armenia. Second, the Armenian military's position in the highlands above the lowlands of western Azerbaijan would allow Armenia to easily target key Azeri transport infrastructure and oil and natural gas pipelines with missile strikes. 

 

(IHS Jane's Country Risk Daily Report)