Azerbaijan's finance ministry sees 2027 GDP growth at 2.7%

Azerbaijan's finance ministry said on Wednesday that it expected gross domestic product to grow by 2.7% in 2027 compared to 1.7% expected this year.

The ministry said its 2027 draft budget assumed an average oil price of $65 per barrel.

It forecast GDP growth of 2.6% in 2028, 4.2% in 2029 and 3.6% in 2030.

The oil and gas sector is expected to contract by 1.8% in 2027, the same rate of decline forecast for 2026, while the non-oil and gas sector is projected to grow by 4.4%, compared with 3.1% this year.

Azerbaijan expects a budget deficit of 3.166 billion manats ($1.86 billion) in 2027, equivalent to 2.2% of GDP.

Budget revenues are forecast to rise by 1.6% from the approved 2026 level to 39.234 billion manats, while expenditures are expected to increase by 1.7% to 42.4 billion manats.

Budget revenues are projected to equal 27.8% of GDP, with 15.48 billion manats, or 39.5%, coming from the oil and gas sector and 23.754 billion manats, or 60.5%, from the non-oil and gas sector.

Defence and national security spending is projected at 8.816 billion manats in 2027, accounting for 20.8% of state budget expenditures.

The Finance Ministry said Azerbaijan’s total state debt, including external and domestic debt, was expected to stand at 28.6 billion manats by the end of 2027, equivalent to 20.3% of projected GDP.