When the Soviet Union was dissolved in December 1991, it was thought that Turkey would gradually make Azerbaijan its own territory over time. The past 25 years have shown this prediction to be inaccurate. Azerbaijan, which has a population of 10 million, is now influencing Turkey, which has a population of 80 million. It has the capacity to rock the Turkish public opinion like a cradle whenever it wants. For instance, while Azerbaijan has a big think tank in İstanbul, Turkey has civil servants in Baku who do nothing in return for high salaries.

When Turkey set the date for a snap election last year on Nov. 1, Azerbaijan also changed its general election date to Nov. 1. Under no circumstances does Turkey want to place Azerbaijan in a difficult position and alone.

In the Turkish-Russian tension, which began with Turkey's downing of a Russian jet for the violation of its airspace on Nov. 24, the Azerbaijani people and media have taken a position next to Turkey. Only elderly intellectuals who were educated by the Soviet Union and who write in Russian supported Russia. Azerbaijan's generally good relations with Russia have started to become strained following the outbreak of the Turkish-Russian crisis on Nov. 24.

Baku is well aware of the fact that if it had taken sides with Russia, it could have cost it its independence. The Baku administration has chosen to take a position similar to that of Georgia in the Nov. 24 crisis. Turkish investors make investments in Georgia, Turkey and Georgia have good political and military relations, but nobody says "Georgia is supporting Turkey." Azerbaijan is surrounded by Russia, Armenia and Iran. In this case, Azerbaijan could announce its neutrality in the Turkish-Russian crisis just as Turkmenistan, which is surrounded by Uzbekistan, Russia and Iran, has been doing for 20 years and celebrating this as a festival.

The Russian Federation is ruled by the St. Petersburg cult, which has been defending integration with Europe since Tsarist Russia. Russia wants to be a power center in Europe. Following French President François Hollande's visit to Moscow, the Kremlin's quest to become European has strengthened. Russia is currently in cooperation with the West (the US, the EU and Israel) in Syria. It is trying to establish good relations with the West again over Syria but it has not achieved any results. Since the international position of Europe-focused Russia changes, its influence on Nagorno-Karabakh diminishes. 

The Nagorno-Karabakh issue is on the back burner for the Kremlin. The main reason why Azerbaijan cannot enter the Eurasian Customs Union is because of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue.

The Nov. 24 crisis has changed the geopolitics of the South Caucasus again. The stones have been turned but they have not settled yet. Baku is aware that a racist discourse against Turkey and Turks that began in Russia is also taking root in Azerbaijan. Russia increasing its political and military support to Armenia will further spoil the Azerbaijan-Armenia balance. Armenia's harassment of Azerbaijan will grow further. It is even a possibility that the Kremlin will force Armenia to launch a military operation in Azerbaijan so that it can drag Turkey into a war.