The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the rebel region of Nagorno-Karabakh is one of several frozen conflicts in the former Soviet Union. Since the end of a six-year war in 1994, Armenia has exercised control over the territory and Russian support has kept Azerbaijan from mounting any viable challenges to retake Nagorno-Karabakh.
However, Russia's increasingly fragile position with the West and Azerbaijan's ability to leverage this change may soon prompt deals on several of the regions adjacent to Nagorno-Karabakh. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made an unannounced visit to Armenia on Nov. 9 in what some local media have billed as a "secret" trip to discuss Nagorno-Karabakh. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan is being seen as a potential alternative energy supplier to the Europeans, and is using its newfound political clout to lobby Moscow to change its position on Nagorno-Karabakh.
Military clashes along the border have intensified as Azerbaijan has increased cross-border raids and shootouts. As Azerbaijan grows bolder, it may reach an agreement with Armenia that gives it control of the regions surrounding the breakaway territory. If the diplomatic route fails, Azerbaijan may increase the scale of its military activities.
Several Armenian newspapers ran articles and commentaries framing Lavrov's recent visit to Yerevan as an appeal for Armenia to return to Azerbaijan five out of seven territories adjacent to Nagorno-Karabakh. In exchange, Russia would place its own troops in these territories to guarantee that war would not resume and to convince Azerbaijan to end its economic blockade of Armenia. The Lachin corridor — a key supply route into Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenia — would remain in Armenia's control, as would the region of Kalbajar. Azerbaijan, for its part, would end military hostilities and commit itself to peace talks.
Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian has on multiple occasions said that Armenia could accept relinquishing control of the adjacent regions as long as a secure land link was maintained and international security guarantees were implemented. However, the reports emerging in local media do not guarantee that Armenia will indeed relinquish control of the regions surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh. The dispute is still a sensitive political issue in Armenia, where the public feels a strong sense of national ownership over the territory. The last Armenian president to seriously negotiate a change to the status quo, Levon Ter-Petrosyan, was forced to resign in 1998.
(Stratfor)
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