Iran's confidence, challenges for US, and Israeli elections

It seems that recently Iran has begun to feel more confident in the midst of the confrontation with the United States, as if it knows or is convinced that there will be no military solution. Tehran’s behavior indirectly indicates that.

Iran is discussing with friendly nations the establishment of mechanisms to mitigate US sanctions, Iranian foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has recently said. This includes, in particular, the conclusion of bilateral currency agreements with China, Russia, India and a number of other countries.

The same day, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani ordered the Interior Ministry to stop stamping passports of foreign visitors at airports. This should help facilitate travels to Iran and encourage foreign tourists to visit the country without concerns about the US regulations which restrict visa-free entry to the US for travelers to Iran, Tasnim news agency reported.

It looks like Tehran is more concerned about easing sanctions and attracting tourists rather than the threat of a military action.

At the same time, Iran's confidence is also seen by its tough position no longer to give in to the pointless promises and hidden threats of the EU countries – the signatories of the nuclear agreement.

France, Great Britain and Germany have sent an official diplomatic warning to Iran about the serious consequences Tehran faces if it scales back its compliance with the nuclear deal, international media reported on Monday.

In response, Tehran has openly stated that it sees no reason to stick to JCPOA: Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs Abbas Araqchi said on Monday the Europeans’ failure to fulfill their commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal has left Iran with no choice but to stop honoring its obligations.

What is behind Iran’s self-possession? Maybe, Tehran is projecting confidence out of desperation? Or, on the contrary, it feels certain that the US will not dare attack for fear of catastrophic consequences?

What does the other side have to say about this?

The US President has said recently that he did not cancel the strike on Iran in response to the downed UAV, but only stopped it at this stage: "I never called the strike against Iran "BACK,” as people are incorrectly reporting, I just stopped it from going forward at this time!”

World media outlets interpret it so that the US will retaliate – but not now.

Preparation for the operation "Desert Storm” to liberate Kuwait in 1991 lasted almost six months. The intended operation for the 2003 invasion of Iraq to topple down Saddam Hussein's power lasted about the same period of time.

According to many military specialists, Iran is a much more formidable and dangerous opponent than Iraq. As well, since the last US invasion of Iraq, the US has had new types of weaponry, but Iran has also not wasted any time. This means that the period of preparation for a military action can be much longer than six months.

The main threat to the United States will not be the crush of Iran’s air and missile defense, but its offensive weapons.

Iran's retaliatory ballistic missile strikes against the US bases and Navy in the Persian Gulf region, as well as against Israel (by proxies) and the oil infrastructure of Saudi Arabia and the UAE (by proxies too) are perhaps the main deterrent for the US.

So, until the US provides the lowest possible rate of loss, the operation will not take place.

However, there is also a political implication of the current wait-and-see position of the US and its allies. An attack followed by heavy losses can become an insurmountable barrier for Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential elections. Meanwhile, a successful military campaign will certainly guarantee him a second term.

Therefore, Trump has nowhere to hurry with resolving the issue by force. Instead, sanctions continue to play their destructive role.

"I am in no hurry, our Military is rebuilt, new, and ready to go, by far the best in the world. Sanctions are biting & more added last night…,” Trump tweeted a few days ago.

The military operation against Iran, in which Tel Aviv will most likely be involved, may also affect the forthcoming Israeli elections. A successful outcome in containing Tehran or its proxies would allow Netanyahu, the defense minister help Netanyahu, the prime minister to win them.