ISW: Vladimir Putin will not rest until he has conquered Kyiv
18.11.2022 10:31
"Negotiations cannot end the Russian war against Ukraine; they can only pause it. Putin will never stop trying to regain control of Ukraine by one means or another," said the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
"The renewed Russian invasion in February 2022, after eight years of deadly "ceasefire" following the first Russian invasions of 2014, demonstrates that Russian President Vladimir Putin will not rest until he has conquered Kyiv. Ukraine's resistance to the invasion this year shows that Ukrainians will not easily surrender. The conflict is unresolvable as long as Putinism rules the Kremlin. Negotiations won't change that reality.
"It is also vital to recall the fire never ceased during the so-called 'ceasefire' between 2014 and 2022. Russian forces conducted constant military attacks on Ukrainian positions throughout that period. Russian forces are even now leaning into a renewed offensive in Donetsk Oblast.
"Russia still controls the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant—the largest in Europe and a major source of Ukrainian energy as well as an increasing danger to the environment in the irresponsible hands of the Russians.
"Putin is pursuing to eliminate the Ukrainian national identity everywhere he can.
"Putin will never stop trying to regain control of Ukraine by one means or another. Neither Ukraine nor the West can change Putin's ambitions-so they must create a reality in which even Putin understands that he must not pursue them by war and in which he lacks the capability to continue fighting even if he wanted to. How can that reality come about? The West should help Ukraine liberate the areas that are strategically vital to its security and economic well-being and then build up the Ukrainian military and economy to the point that deters future Russian invasions. Moscow will continue to pursue means short of invasion to undermine pro-Western Ukrainian governments and coerce Ukrainians to surrender their independence. Success for Ukraine and the West lies in turning this hot war into a cold war on terms that leave Ukraine strong enough to survive and ultimately win it," the ISW said.
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"The renewed Russian invasion in February 2022, after eight years of deadly "ceasefire" following the first Russian invasions of 2014, demonstrates that Russian President Vladimir Putin will not rest until he has conquered Kyiv. Ukraine's resistance to the invasion this year shows that Ukrainians will not easily surrender. The conflict is unresolvable as long as Putinism rules the Kremlin. Negotiations won't change that reality.
"It is also vital to recall the fire never ceased during the so-called 'ceasefire' between 2014 and 2022. Russian forces conducted constant military attacks on Ukrainian positions throughout that period. Russian forces are even now leaning into a renewed offensive in Donetsk Oblast.
"Russia still controls the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant—the largest in Europe and a major source of Ukrainian energy as well as an increasing danger to the environment in the irresponsible hands of the Russians.
"Putin is pursuing to eliminate the Ukrainian national identity everywhere he can.
"Putin will never stop trying to regain control of Ukraine by one means or another. Neither Ukraine nor the West can change Putin's ambitions-so they must create a reality in which even Putin understands that he must not pursue them by war and in which he lacks the capability to continue fighting even if he wanted to. How can that reality come about? The West should help Ukraine liberate the areas that are strategically vital to its security and economic well-being and then build up the Ukrainian military and economy to the point that deters future Russian invasions. Moscow will continue to pursue means short of invasion to undermine pro-Western Ukrainian governments and coerce Ukrainians to surrender their independence. Success for Ukraine and the West lies in turning this hot war into a cold war on terms that leave Ukraine strong enough to survive and ultimately win it," the ISW said.
www.anews.az
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