Chinese media say Russia’s Far East should not be “lost” if Moscow collapses

Chinese state-affiliated media have said that in the event of a potential collapse of Russia, the Far East region — covering about 7 million square kilometres — should not be “lost” and is critical to China’s long-term security and resource interests.

The articles recall that under the Peking Treaty Russia acquired about 400,000 square kilometres east of the Ussuri River, including Vladivostok and Sakhalin, resulting in China losing more than 1 million square kilometres and weakening its north-eastern defences.

The commentaries describe Russia’s economy as stagnant, with GDP smaller than that of some Chinese provinces. They argue that the war in Ukraine, which began in 2022, led to the redeployment of Russia’s main forces westward, leaving fewer than 50,000 troops in the Far East.

The region is rich in gold, diamonds, oil and other resources and accounts for a significant share of Russia’s national output. However, Chinese authors say Moscow’s finances have been strained by the war, limiting its ability to focus on the Far East.

Chinese media also point to China’s energy needs, noting that pipelines from the Far East supply around 38 billion cubic metres of gas annually, covering about 10% of China’s demand. In the event of chaos in Russia’s central authority, the United States and Japan would closely monitor developments, the reports say.

The articles stress that China has long expanded its economic footprint in the Far East through infrastructure projects, mining, agriculture and the growing use of the yuan. They add that any military takeover would be unacceptable, potentially triggering global isolation, and instead advocate long-term investment, contracts and economic leverage, warning that “territorial vacuums are always filled”.