Super El Niño could make 2027 hottest year on record and hike food prices by 16%

Warnings are mounting that the strengthening El Niño phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean could become one of the most severe in 150 years, potentially making 2027 the hottest year on record as the release of vast amounts of ocean heat compounds underlying global warming, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said.

NOAA models indicate an 81% probability of a "very strong" El Niño emerging during the October–December window, with elevated sea surface temperatures projected to persist through spring 2027. Climate scientists estimate global average temperatures could temporarily rise 1.7°C above pre-industrial benchmarks, breaching the critical 1.5°C threshold.

Beyond severe ecological risks—such as coral bleaching and Amazon basin droughts—extreme climate swings threaten agricultural yields worldwide. Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that a "Super El Niño" could drive global agricultural commodity prices up by as much as 15.8%, exacerbated by weakened Indian monsoons curbing rice, wheat, and sugarcane output, with price reverberations lingering into 2028.

N.Tebrizli