IMF updates forecast for Azerbaijan’s current account surplus in 2026

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that Azerbaijan’s current account surplus will amount to 7.8% of GDP in 2025.

According to Report, citing the IMF’s latest outlook, the surplus is expected to decline to 4.1% of GDP in 2026. The 2025 forecast remains unchanged, while the 2026 projection has been revised down by 0.8 percentage points.

The IMF predicts that the current account surplus will further shrink to 1.3% of GDP by 2027. In the following years, Azerbaijan is expected to run a current account deficit, reaching 1.7% of GDP in 2028 and 2.5% in 2029.

In 2024, Azerbaijan’s current account surplus amounted to $4.7 billion, or 6.3% of GDP.

The World Bank offers a more optimistic outlook for 2025, projecting a surplus of 11.6% of GDP. However, the Bank expects a decline to 5.4% in 2026, 3.8% in 2027, 3.6% in 2028, and 3.4% in 2029.

According to the Azerbaijani government, the current account surplus is expected to reach 5.6% of GDP in 2025. Based on anticipated oil and gas production volumes, the surplus is projected to average around 3% of GDP annually from 2025 to 2028.

The Central Bank of Azerbaijan forecasts a positive current account balance of $5.5 billion for 2025.

N.Tebrizli