Yashar Jafarli: Time has come for Azerbaijan to make a choice

ANN’s Kamal Ali has interviewed Yashar Jafarli, director of the Center for Regional and Strategic Studies, a Baku-based research group, on the Ukrainian crisis and its regional repercussions. Jafarli also commented on Russian-Azerbaijani relations.

- What is the current state of affairs like in Azerbaijani-Russian relations?

- There are both obvious and obscure sides to the relationship between the two countries. The obvious side is reflected in the government propaganda in three directions. The first direction portrays Russian-Azerbaijani relationship as a rosy one. It claims that “relations between the two independent and neighboring countries are normal. Ties in the economic, military, technical and cultural fields are very good and progressing. There are no problems between Russia and Azerbaijan in the political field either. We are both members of the Commonwealth of Independent States. We share the same positions on international issues”. 

The second direction is being presented by the government as a balanced policy. It says: “We have centuries-old good neighborly relations with Russia, with which we share common history and culture. There is a huge potential for further expansion of these ties. Yet, Russia does not justify our hopes on the issues of Nagorno-Karabakh and the Caspian Sea status. Pro-Armenian and pro-Iranian forces in Moscow are acting against Azerbaijan’s interests. We have to bear this in mind in our neighborly relations with Russia. Therefore, we do not want to join the Collective Security Treaty Organization. We have to maintain good relationships with the West, China and Israel as well to counterbalance the Russian pressure.”

The third direction maintains that Azerbaijan is coming under constant Russian pressure. It says that because of the West’s weak support to Azerbaijan, the country has to consider Russian interests as well. Interestingly enough, Russia, which sees all CIS member states including Azerbaijan as its colonies, tolerates this policy by the YAP (ruling New Azerbaijan Party) government. This is what I meant while speaking about the obscure side of the Russian-Azerbaijani ties. This unseen side helps shed light on the real state of affairs in the relationship between Russia and Azerbaijan.

Putin’s Russia is calm and confident in its policy towards the government of President Ilham Aliyev. One interesting example is the way Russia closed down the Gabala radar station in Azerbaijan without stirring any trouble. I think the developments in some CIS member states are being guided from the same center, that is the Kremlin, and Russian-Azerbaijani relations should be analyzed in this context.

Azerbaijan’s position on the Ukrainian crisis is a vivid example of that.

- Will the Russians help us on Karabakh? 

- I think Russia is using the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict as a major tool to maintain sway on both Azerbaijan and Armenia. The unresolved conflict also serves the interests of the governments in both Armenia and Azerbaijan.  Azerbaijan, in particular, uses this factor skillfully in its domestic and foreign policies.

It uses the Karabakh factor to calm down people facing economic hardships within the country. It also brings the issue up with Western governments that demand democratic reforms in Azerbaijan. Therefore, I do not think that the Ukrainian crisis will help resolve the Karabakh conflict. Some people had similar expectations during the recent crises in Kosovo and Georgia as well, but nothing has changed.

Generally speaking, I think finding a solution to the Karabakh conflict is not a priority for the YAP government, as their corporate interests are above national interests. The corporate interests dictate that the government should maintain its grip on power to ensure the security of money stolen from the people. Radical steps to be taken on Karabakh may or may not be successful. A failure would seriously threaten the government. 

- What does the future hold for Azerbaijan politically? 

-- The “balanced” policy pursued by the YAP government in the past 21 years has been a complete failure. Against a backdrop of this fiasco, things can develop in any direction. There is no doubt that the Ukrainian crisis will impact us. It seems very realistic that the YAP government will soon start implementing a plan for joining the Customs Union, the Eurasian Economic Union and even the Collective Security Treaty Organization. The latest rumor that Russia will help Azerbaijan get back some of the districts under Armenian occupation is a sign of that. The government may also allow Russia deploy its peacekeepers in the conflict zone.  

US Ambassador Richard Morningstar’s interview to Radio Free Europe and the recent visits to Baku by EU officials indicate that the West is keeping a closer eye on the developments around Azerbaijan. All this means that the fight for Azerbaijan is intensifying. I think Azerbaijan is on the brink of serious changes. In other words, the time has come for Azerbaijan to make a choice. We can no longer sit on the fence. We have to make a choice. 

Bakudaily.az