Azerbaijan eyes 5.2 pct growth in 2014

Azerbaijan expects its economy to grow by 5.2 percent next year, driven by a double-digit expansion in non-oil sectors that is picking up the slack for a dip in oil output, Reuters said.Parliament on Friday approved a 2014 budget based on an estimated oil price of $100 per barrel, the same as this year.It sees revenues of 18.384 billion manats ($22.98 billion), down from 19.159 billion manats expected this year, and spending of 20.063 billion manats, up from 19.850 billion manats in 2013.The deficit is seen at 2.9 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), up from 1.2 percent of GDP in 2013.The budget for 2014 foresees non-oil sectors of the economy will grow by 10 percent, but some analysts voice doubt about the official figures, suggesting they are meant to paint a rosy picture of the economy in a country whose leadership tolerates little dissent."Double-digit growth in the non-oil sector is not a real indicator... It's a political forecast, not economic," said Gubad Ibadoglu, an independent analyst at the Baku-based Economic Studies Centre.Growth in the former Soviet republic has slowed dramatically since the oil-fuelled boom of 2003-2007, when the economy expanded by an average of 21 percent per year.The government recorded 2.2 percent growth last year and predicts average annual growth of 5.1 percent in 2013-2017.The International Monetary Fund, which forecasts 5 percent growth in Azeri GDP this year and in 2014, has urged Azerbaijan to reduce its reliance on a mature but ailing oil industry and prepare for a potential decline in global energy prices by developing the non-oil sector.Officials link the decline in revenues with a reduction of transfers from the state oil fund and 1.5 percent decline in oil production that is expected this year.

"Transfers from the state oil fund will be reduced by 2.1 billion manats next year to 9.3 billion manats," Finance Minister Samir Sharifov said.

ANN.Az