2015: The year ahead in aviation
24.12.2014 09:03
In recent years, so much has been going on in the world of commercial aviation that putting together a "top 10 events" forecast has been easy -- major new airplane programs have been announced, airline consolidation has taken place and disputes between China and Europe over carbon emissions have held major airplane orders hostage.
Not in 2015.
Looking at the year ahead, it's a challenge to muster a list of five events likely to grab the general public's attention, much less 10.
The year 2015 is more about program execution.
New airplanes from Airbus and Bombardier are scheduled to enter service (EIS) in 2015 and the Airbus A350 XWB, scheduled for delivery to its first customer December 22, will also see its EIS in January.
Boeing's 787s are in a lull: more than 200 have been delivered and the next version, the 787-10, isn't scheduled for delivery until 2018.
Embraer is between airplanes, so to speak. Its new, re-engined E-Jet E2 isn't scheduled for delivery until 2018 and the current generation E-Jet marches on.
Yet even though they do lack the pizzazz of years past, there are still a handful of important events and milestones to look forward to in 2015.
New airplanes to enter service
The Airbus A320neo, the New Engine Option, and the Bombardier CSeries, are supposed to enter service in 2015.
Each is powered by the Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbo Fan (GTF), a 20-year research-and-development gamble that brings PW back into the arena as a major player in single-aisle airplane powerplants.
"Supposed to" because new airplane programs from Airbus, Boeing and Bombardier have been replete with delays.
So far, the flight-testing of the A320neo -- which had its first flight in September -- seems to be going flawlessly, but unknowns can emerge. The
A320neo's EIS is scheduled for October.
For CSeries, EIS of Bombardier's bet-the-company jump into the big leagues with its first "mainline" jet is an event that was originally supposed to happen in December 2013.
Then the fourth quarter of 2014.
The first flight of the airborne test program didn't happen until September 2013.
The planned fourth quarter 2014 EIS may have been achieved had it not been for a major engine failure of PW's GTF during a ground test in May.
The fault was traced to a poorly designed oil seal and not the game-changing engine architecture.
The entire flight test fleet was grounded for three months while the cause and a fix were identified.
Had CSeries been on time, it would have been two years ahead of the A320neo.
Now, it'll be a toss up as to which airplane enters service first.
According to the Canadian investment bank aerospace analyst at Desjardins, CSeries should have its EIS in October 2015.
Bombardier will only say the second half of 2015, but MTU, a major supplier on the CSeries Pratt & Whitney engine, narrows this down to the fourth quarter.
(CNN)
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