The tech trends that will change the world
Every year, around the time of the International CES consumer technology show, I am asked to predict the future. It's a fool's errand. Aside from obvious riches and personal gain, if I were able to predict the future, it would be far less interesting than what truly lies ahead. It's not that I don't see wondrous things in the offing ... it's simply that the future is not what it used to be.
That said, there are a few undeniable trends.
Making sense of the numbers
According to every credible source we can find, there are almost 3 billion people connected to the public internet right now; by 2020 the number will approach 4 billion. According to Cisco, by 2020 there will be over 50 billion connected devices in the world. Some people like to call it the "Internet of Things," others call it "Machine 2 Machine" or "M2M." No matter what you call it, these are unimaginably large numbers of people and devices all connected.
So how do you sort it out?
I use three laws to help me understand the rate of change: Moore's Law, the Law of Accelerating Returns, and Metcalfe's Law. Moore's Law is named for Gordon Moore, the co-founder of Intel. He wrote a famous paper back in 1965 where it posited that the density of semiconductors on silicon would double every 18 months.
This was true for a while, but now, because of the Law of Accelerating Returns (which states that the rate of technological change is accelerating exponentially) we know that this doubling of computing power happens much faster than that. Then there's Metcalfe's Law, which tells us that the value of a network increases proportional to the square of the number of users. If this all sounds too geeky, don't worry -- here's how to think about the remarkable pace of technological change and the huge number of people in simple terms.
1) Technology is changing at a faster and faster pace. In fact, today is the slowest rate of technological change you will ever experience in your life.
2) The more people are connected, the more powerful the network becomes.
Connectivity: everything that can be connected, will be connected
The price and size of sensor technology is falling at a predictable rate (Moore's Law and the Law of Accelerating Returns), which tells us everything that can be connected, will be connected. Everything. What exactly might that mean for us?
(CNN)
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