ISW: 'Surovikin’s appointment will not lead to further 'Syrianization' of Russian operations in Ukraine'

Russian forces conducted massive missile strikes across Ukraine for the second day in a row on October 11, reported from the Institute for the Study of War.

The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Russian forces fired nearly 30 Kh-101 and Kh-55 cruise missiles from Tu-95 and Tu-160 strategic bombers and damaged critical infrastructure in Lviv, Vinnytsia, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhia oblasts.

Russian forces additionally continued to launch attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure with Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones.

"Army General Sergey Surovikin’s previous experience as commander of Russian Armed Forces in Syria likely does not explain the massive wave of missile strikes across Ukraine over the past few days, nor does it signal a change in the trajectory of Russian capabilities or strategy in Ukraine,” the ISW stressed.

Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) representative, Andriy Yusov, linked the recent strikes to Surovikin’s appointment as theatre commander and stated on October 11 that "throwing rockets at civilian infrastructure objects” is consistent with Surovikin’s tactics in Syria.

However, Surovikin has been serving in Ukraine (as the Commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces and then reportedly of the southern grouping of Russian forces) since the beginning of the war, as have many senior Russian commanders similarly associated with Russian operations in Syria.

"Surovikin’s appointment will not lead to further ‘Syrianization’ of Russian operations in Ukraine because the battlespace in Ukraine is fundamentally different from the battlespace in Syria, and direct comparisons to Surovikin’s Syrian ‘playbook’ obfuscate the fact that Russia faces very different challenges in Ukraine,” the institute noted.





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