OPEC experts say oil supply recovery after crisis could take more than a year

Oil supplies from Gulf countries may return to pre-crisis levels only by mid-2027 even if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened soon, analysts said at a technical meeting of OPEC in Vienna.

Experts said the conflict around Iran would have a long-term impact on the global oil market, with logistics chains, transport routes and export operations requiring several months to recover even in the event of a rapid settlement.

Representatives of S&P Global, FGE NexantECA, Vortexa, Kpler and Energy Aspects took part in the closed-door discussions.

A similar assessment was earlier made by ADNOC chief executive Sultan Al Jaber, who said that even if the conflict ended immediately, restoring oil supplies from Gulf countries could take until the middle of next year.

The International Energy Agency has also warned that global oil inventories are falling at an accelerated pace. According to the agency, if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, global reserves could approach critical levels as early as the third quarter of this year.

Experts say any further deterioration could trigger a new rise in energy prices and increase pressure on the global economy.