Portnikov: Ukraine war outcome to determine Russia's influence in South Caucasus

The future of Russian influence in the South Caucasus and across the former Soviet space will largely depend on the outcome of the war in Ukraine, Ukrainian journalist and political commentator Vitaly Portnikov said in an interview with 1inTV.

According to Portnikov, the prolonged conflict has shown that Russia is unable to achieve its objectives quickly, prompting several post-Soviet leaders to take advantage of Moscow’s weakened position and adopt a more assertive stance toward the Kremlin. Referring to recent statements by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, and Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, Portnikov cautioned that this growing independence could prove temporary.

"If the war ends successfully for Russia, the post-Soviet space will once again become Moscow’s sphere of influence, even considering the interests of other players. If Russia fails to subjugate Ukraine, it will lose control over the post-Soviet space, regardless of what measures it later takes in the South Caucasus or Central Asia," he stated.

Portnikov described the region as a hostage to the conflict, noting that it currently "revolves around the Ukrainian axis." He also warned that Russian expansionist ambitions may persist beyond President Vladimir Putin's tenure, urging countries like Azerbaijan, Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine to continuously bolster their state security and institutions.

N.Tebrizli