Israeli intelligence surprised by rapid recovery of Iran's missile arsenal — The Jerusalem Post

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and the Mossad intelligence agency have been surprised by the unexpectedly rapid pace at which Iran is restoring its defense infrastructure following the conflict in early 2026, according to The Jerusalem Post.

Four months after the main phase of the military campaign concluded in April, senior Israeli defense officials acknowledge that Tehran has managed to focus its resources on regenerating its defense-industrial capacity, particularly its ballistic missile production. Following extensive IDF strikes on nearly 100 missile and military facilities in June 2025, Israel estimated it had set Iran's missile program back by several years. However, Iran accelerated production, expanding its stockpile from roughly 1,300 missiles in June 2025 to 2,500 by February 2026.

Despite military infrastructure damage estimated at $300 billion, Tehran's targeted recovery efforts could see its missile arsenal returned to pre-strike levels by 2027 if monthly output reaches 100 to 300 units. Consequently, Israeli defense planners consider these assessments a potential catalyst for preemptive strikes on Iranian missile facilities, independent of ongoing diplomatic talks regarding the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program.