World Bank raises forecast for European gas prices

The World Bank has raised its forecast for average natural gas prices in Europe for 2026–2027 amid higher energy risks and continued pressure on global gas markets.

According to the April edition of the World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook, the average price of natural gas in Europe is projected at $15 per million British thermal units in 2026, $4.2 above the previous forecast. In 2027, the price is expected to fall to $12 per million BTU, still $2.2 higher than the earlier estimate.

In the United States, the increase is expected to be more moderate. The World Bank forecasts U.S. gas prices at $3.8 per million BTU in 2026 and $4 per million BTU in 2027. In 2025, average gas prices stood at $12 in Europe and $3.5 in the United States, according to the bank’s estimates.

This means European gas prices are expected to rise by about a quarter in 2026 before falling by 20% in 2027. In the United States, prices are forecast to increase more modestly, by about 8% in 2026 and 5% in 2027.

The World Bank said gas prices, especially in markets influenced by LNG, are likely to remain high as long as shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain substantially curtailed.

Azerbaijani gas supplies to Europe through the Trans Adriatic Pipeline began on Dec. 31, 2020.